From the Future of Work to Education to Development

The Future of Work

College doesn’t guarantee employment, and employment doesn’t guarantee security. The consequence? Mid-level professionals and top talent are learning to be more entrepreneurial. Need proof? An estimated 30 million solopreneurs (businesses with no paid employees) contribute roughly $1.7 trillion to the economy (about 6.8% of GDP). “Solopreneuring” really got going in the mid 2010’s, when the digital economy hit. Now, with the advent of AI, it has exploded.

At the same time, young people are finding that the job market has shifted — new entrants, fresh out of college, are, increasingly, unable to find jobs. They are accepting low paying jobs in the gig economy of necessity, with many wondering why they chose college at all.

Yesterday’s New York Times included a piece by Alan Blinder, Colleges Face a Reckoning, is a Degree Really Necessary? in which he names the shift:

Times Have Changed

The present and future of work has changed. Traditional approaches to ensuring economic security now appear to be disconnected from reality. The undergraduate degree as formational experience was worthwhile because it also presented an opportunity for lifelong earning power. That deal is now risky. Getting a college degree no longer guarantees a job in a good company, and a job in a “good company” does not guarantee lifelong employment, not even close.

Welcome the “Gigger” and the “Solopreneur”

As a consequence, more college grads are entering the “gig economy,” providing services that don’t require too much skill, on their own, to pay their bills. For this group, there is often a desire for more reliable, skilled work, but no clear path without additional training.

At the same time, many mid-senior level professionals are leaving companies to set up shop on their own. They are offering fractional services, frictionless, project-based engagements, in a far more intentional and embedded way than traditional consultants ever did. (No recycled powerpoints!)

This trend, for executives, is equal parts self-protection and ambition. If you are highly skilled and capable, giving your all, and yet your paycheck could go away next week, what is the sensible approach to trading time for money? Build your own value proposition. Share it with selected clients. Grow demand for your services and expertise as you grow your reputation and brand.

It is Easier Than Ever to be A One Person Shop

For seasoned professionals, the impossible is suddenly possible. Work that used to require teams of staff, (research, product development, billing, marketing, brand development, client development), can now be accomplished by one person with a willingness to learn. (There are apps for that!) It has never been easier to work without a staff. Perhaps this, and the strength of the gig economy for unskilled workers, is why the rise of the solopreneur is one of the biggest shifts in the US workforce.

Companies Benefit from Strategic Use of Contracted Talent

Hiring a solo exec on a contract basis makes sense to employers who are looking to manage payroll expenses but need talent. An added advantage, the solopreneur embeds, with little need for “management.” Moreover, many companies need special talent only episodically; a strategy guru feels like a luxury, but it is important to hire one to run a planning process. If your workplace remains hybrid, like most, then the world is your oyster when it comes to hiring solopreneur talent; bring them on site only as needed. The bottom line, a wise use of project-based talent substantially reduces permanent payroll costs, while improving insight and limiting risks.

The Bad Part - This Makes it Even Harder for New Entrants into the Workforce

This isn’t a good trend for aspiring entrants into the workforce. They need entry level jobs, which are being replaced by AI. They also need mentoring and solid teams, which are hit or miss in hybrid work environments. Most early career professionals cannot figure out how to deliver without shadowing more senior people and being mentored by them. Increasingly, employers are not set up to take on the challenges of growing talent from within. For those that continue to hire at the entry level, good for you, and please commit to being in-person with early career staff; provide structure, accountability, and mentoring by more senior leaders.

What You Need to be a Successful Solopreneur

• Reliability — With no one looking over your shoulder, you have to be consistently conscientious and responsive — no exceptions — period. The “promise-deliver” cycle is the only way to establish trust. One lapse breaks trust.

• Relationship Building — You will be consistently, continuously building relationships as a part of your work. For some, this is new and uncomfortable. The good news is that ongoing relationship building is a core skill in the new economy, whether you are a solopreneur or not. Find your way — but do it.

• Excellence — Your own skills must be superhero level to go above and beyond for your clients, week in and week out. Your mindset must be one of continuous learning and improvement. Having your own coach helps with this.

A Revolution in Education is Underway

So how the heck did we get here? When I was a kid, I could not wait to get to college, as much for the library as for the faculty. An encyclopedia was the best way to learn on your own. Today, far more is available with a few keystrokes of the device you are clutching in the palm of your hand. (Yes, we are cyborgs, and we will have to come to grips with that, but that is a story for another day.) Already a $42 billion industry in the US, online learning is expected to double by 2030. Apps that gamify education, like Duolingo, seem effective, engaging and - bonus - they are also addictive. The proliferation of content by tech companies and creators is simply changing what education is. And there is nothing that Higher Ed can do about it. Every second of every day the distinction is more blurred between education, storytelling, and marketing.

But the big news is what the NYT reported yesterday— young people entering the workforce have less reason to get an undergraduate degree. It is now an important decision whether or not to go for it. It did not used to be. HIgh Schools have preached college for all for years and it has gotten young people into piles of hope-crushing debt. The workforce has changed. Employers do not all need degrees, and they are also not sure if they need entry level employees.

Accessible, affordable, and, confusing, the growing learning marketplace has all the security of an abandoned zoo. Consumer beware.

Confidence in Higher Ed is Down

A new poll from Pew confirmed that 70% of Americans believe higher education is “headed in the wrong direction.” Young people looking for a safe investment in themselves, and their employability would be wise to shop their options. Consider this — today’s 20 year olds are coming of age in a new world of knowledge creation and delivery. YouTube is their trusty tutor, Chat GBT is their advisor, and social media is their quality filter. (“Yikes!”)

The new autodidacts have short attention spans and they are low on hope for the future. They are not sitting in libraries reading books after school, they are being bombarded with information — every hour that their smartphones are on.

Making a good choice about their foundational educational experience after high school is their Rubicon. Their thinking reflects a crowded, chaotic, marketplace where their attention has been productized.

The Undergraduate Degree — Is it Over?

The undergraduate degree, once a path to status, employment, and (!) critical thinking skills, is now a debt trap for many. Colleges should create options to traditional four-year residential experiences to ensure undergraduate degrees remain relevant to young people in our world. (I have a PhD in Philosophy. I love the liberal arts. There is so much more to life than skill building. Still, changing how undergraduate experiences are delivered would undoubtedly benefit people.)

In a recent Forbes article, The End of College for All — And the Rise of the Skills Economy, Dr. Jason Wingard notes that the undergraduate degree often leaves recipients without skills and without jobs. Many employers no longer require an undergraduate degree, more than 50% of entry level jobs are now open to HS grads. For economic security, trade schools have never looked better. Alternatively, for those moving directly into work from HS, employers, from Unilever to Siemens to Google, offer their own training programs. And by the way, annual spending on undergraduate education in the US is about $700 billion. With disruption comes opportunity.

Who Benefits From the Shift to Skills

Organizational beneficiaries of the shift in what the workplace needs will be the most entrepreneurial organizations, not the most elite.

• Education apps and for profit gamified educational products — shout out to Duolingo. (We love you!) It is fun, and addictive.

• Innovative universities — in this pack, Arizona State University (ASU) is a standout, consistently ranking #1 in innovation in US News Reports — they emphasize partnerships and applied innovation.

• Community Colleges, always a bargain, are more obviously on target for what consumers need; they partner with communities and companies.

• For-profit vocational schools with in-demand training in the trades — plumbing, electrical, HVAC — all great skills and business opportunities.

• “Non-traditional” schools and units within larger university systems, including Schools of Professional Studies and Continuing Education, will continue to drive innovation with programs designed to meet market need.

• Religious institutions that approach education as a “service to society” will do well when they lean into partnerships, accessible formats, and consumer sensitive pricing. Great communities means added value.

• Professional Associations that create new, accessible, and practical courses of study and credentialing. More to come on the opportunity for associations next week.

• DIY education providers — The new “adjunct” is anyone with a PhD, or practical experience. Experts can now set up their own LMS (learning management system) via subscription service and create high quality video based content on a smartphone. With such low barriers to entry, expect continued disruption to revenue streams of traditional education providers.

Tips for Success in the Shifting Education Marketplace

• For students — think like a consumer, not an applicant.

  • What is the lifetime cost of this educational experience vs. the lifetime value? (Look up “time value of money” on YouTube for some help with this.)

  • Is it a pathway to something more?

• For education providers — what are your (new and different) opportunities?

  • Balance realism about how you are currently doing education with information about what your customers really want and need.

  • Do more than review the BLS report, a lagging indicator, speak with employers to get a better sense of where they see needs in the future.

  • Pilot new education offering, bringing them quickly to market — test, learn, and adapt quickly.

• Bottom line — get comfortable being uncomfortable. The new reality is continuous change.

Recommended Reading

• Don’t Believe Everything You Think: Why Your Thinking is the Beginning and End of Suffering, Jospeh Ngyugen, 2024: Our thoughts create our realities, manage yours to live better.

• Buy Back Your Time by Dan Martell 2023: Practical strategies to increase effectiveness and productivity.

Real Estate

Yesterday I was at a Bisnow event on the economic opportunity related to development in Prince Georges County, MD, (Prince Georges is Gorgeous!), located to the east and adjacent to our nation’s capital, Washington DC. This is a story that repeats itself in counties around the country.

The County Executive, Aisha N. Braveboy, is pro-development, and for good reason. PG County is in need of housing, retail, hospitality and corporate investment; they have big opportunities to attract more of it, for many reasons, including proximity to DC, the success of National Harbor, and the continued growth of UMD as a research hub.

To accelerate development, Ms. Braveboy noted specific new initiatives she has put in place to address pain points that developers have experienced working in the county. (These are developers deeply commited to the county and to delivering much needed developments, such as workforce housing, based on Public Private Partnerships, which leave them wafer thin margins.) Here’s what the County Executive is doing to make PG County more development friendly:

• Reform the Zoning and Permitting Process

• Fast Track approval of small projects

• Creating a permit response team for approval for larger projects … and more!

You can surmise that developers have experienced lengthy delays in PG county waiting for approval for minor changes to approved projects. Every delay adds carrying costs, making it harder for the deals to pencil; investors don’t like that, and communities shouldn’t either.

Here’s the thing — even as Ms. Braveboy is cutting red tape to incentivize development, the Prince George’s County Council is considering a bill (CB42) that would require all new plans to conform to county master plans, plans that are 20 years out of date. This would stifle good development, to put it mildly. Who wants this? Is it ignorance or purposeful undermining? Unclear.

What is the conclusion? This stalemate is playing out across the country. Alignment and partnership is essential for good development. Politicians, developers, and community members must work toward a shared understanding of what makes development possible, and what kills deals. Alignment takes honest and tough conversations and serious commitments. As long as there is not alignment, the path to investment is risky. If developers can’t rely on a genuine partnership with the community, and a clear path to shovel ready, then good people miss out on great development. Ms. Braveboy, at least, knows this.

Every day, I learn more about this community of ethical change makers. It is fun for me when you reach out, so don’t hesitate.

Next week, I’m going to share a specific, proprietary strategy I’ve used, with success, to align values in complex contexts.

Have a great week!

Cindy

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